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Bellingham and Whatcom County Real Estate Update
December 2008
A client who has wandered the world once told us, after a particularly
good travel story, “The most uncomfortable experiences always make
the most interesting stories.” As we look back on the current economic
times, I’m sure that will be the case. What makes it uncomfortable
today is that we don’t know the story’s ending. In the case
of the real estate market, we want to know, “Will prices drop Will
sales fall When should I buy or sell”
None of the experts have those answers. Most of them admit that they didn’t
see the current situation coming and that we have no good historical examples
to show us what to expect. But as humans, we want answers for the future, so
the experts give us their best guesses, which range from a pickup in the 1st
quarter 2009 due to excellent interest rates to softness through 2010 due to
job losses and lack of consumer confidence.
The reality is that nothing in life is guaranteed and that each of us needs to
make our own financial decisions based on our individual circumstances. Some
people have to move regardless of the market, but more move by choice, and in
today’s market it still makes sense for some people to move up or downsize.
The current actual value of your property really doesn’t matter – what
matters is whether that value will allow you to make the change you want to make
in your lifestyle.
Statistics can show us what has happened in the past, don’t help
a lot in predicting the future, but give us some indication as to where
we are currently, so let’s look at some of the numbers:
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Single family home sales in Whatcom County peaked in 2003 at
3052 units sold
•
Single family home average sale price in Whatcom County peaked
in 2007 at $334,698
•
Condo sales in Whatcom County peaked in 2007 at 685 units sold
•
Condo average sale price in Whatcom County peaked in 2007 at
$225,146
2007 to 2008 comparisons of single family homes in Whatcom County show
the following:
•
26.4% fewer sold (2693 to 1981)
•
4.4% drop in average sale price ($334,698 to $317,740)
•
4.5% drop in median sale price ($290,000 to $276,900)
2007 to 2008 comparisons of single family homes in Bellingham show the
following:
•
28% fewer sold (1219 to 881)
•
4% drop in average sale price ($375,161 to $359,151)
•
5% drop in median sale price ($315,000 to $299,000)
To summarize the numbers, the odds of a house selling at this time are
lower than they were a year ago and the price may be a bit lower than
it was, but there has been no dramatic drop. List prices are being negotiated
down about ½ % further than they were a year ago.
To summarize the reality behind the numbers, the trend continues down, but
the basics of buying and selling have not changed. There are people looking
for property. When something comes up that fits their needs and is good value,
they buy quickly and pay the listed price. Some areas and price ranges are
more desirable and in shorter supply than others so pricing is stronger and
sell times are shorter. With less new construction available, newer homes and
nicely renovated homes have an advantage.
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