Last month I compared our market to ping pong balls, sometimes up, sometimes down, sometimes both…just depends on the area. In October
Bellingham unit sales up from October 2010 (to 75 homes from 65) & almost equal to last month (to 75 homes from 77).
Ferndale unit sales down from October 2010 (to 14 homes from 27) & down further from last month (to14 homes from 37).
Birch Bay/Blaine unit sales down a bit from October 2010 (to 13 homes from 15) & down a lot from last month (to13 homes from 28).
Ferndale unit sales dropped substantially from October 2010 (to 14 homes from 27) & from last month as well (to 14 homes from 37).
Lynden managed to about break even – up 3 homes from 2010 and down 3 from September.
But how about the prices, you say. They were bouncing too, with average sale prices in Bellingham and Birch Bay/Lynden down in the double digits from September while Ferndale, Sudden Valley and Nooksack Valley saw double digit increases. If we compare to October 2010, Ferndale and Mt Baker home sale averages were up by double digits, while Birch Bay/Blaine and Lynden were down by those amounts and Bellingham and Sudden Valley were close to holding their own. Want more specifics?
Bellingham prices October 2011 to 2010: average -3.7%; median -12.1%
Whatcom County prices October 2011 to 2010: average -15.8%; median -18.8%
Bellingham prices October to September 2011: average -12%; median -2.4%
Whatcom County prices October to September 2011: average +.4%; median -1.9%
The Bellingham market moved even more strongly into the lower price points, with 64% of the sales below $300,000. Obviously, as prices have dropped, more homes have moved into this category, but it is interesting to note that 4 of the past 6 months have had over 60% of sales at or below $300,000. This is atypical, even as far back as 2006. It certainly isn’t because it is now easier for buyers in the lower price ranges to get loans! During the frenzy, this part of the market was heavily dependent on sub-prime loans. Now, standards for even FHA loans are higher.
There are several speculative explanations for the shift:
Prices for homes at all price points have fallen, moving more of the inventory below $300,000.
As prices have fallen, fewer owners of lower priced homes have been able to sell and take sufficient equity out of their current home to move into the next bracket.
As prices have fallen in areas traditionally providing our incoming purchasers (California, Seattle), our market has localized so our buyers have local incomes and less equity.
Buyers (and lenders) are more aware of the hazards of “over-buying”, so they are purchasing more conservative homes.
The table below shows the change in market distribution from last October
October 2010 Price Ranges in $1000’s
Total 2010 October $ Sales
Total Units Sold
Average Sales Price
% of Market
Changes in October Year to Year Distribution of Residential Sales in Bellingham
<300
$7,380,000
34
$217,059
50.7%
300 to <500
$8,739,727
24
$364,155
35.8%
>500
$3,508,000
6
$584,667
9.0%
>750
$2,731,000
3
$910,333
4.5%
October 2011 Price Ranges in $1000’s
Total 2011 October $ Sales
Total Units Sold
Average Sales Price
% of Market
Unit Change
Average Price Change
<300
$10,575,540
48
$220,324
64.0%
41.2%
1.5%
300 to <500
$7,895,576
20
$394,779
26.7%
-16.7%
8.4%
>500
$2,828,005
5
$565,601
6.7%
-16.7%
-3.3%
>750
$2,805,000
2
$1,402,500
2.7%
-33.3%
54.1%
To read the complete article visit The Johnson Team Real Estate’s Real Estate Update Page. www.JohnsonTeamRealEstate.com also includes a constantly updated list of newly listed properties and a list of properties being offered as short sales & foreclosures (REOs), as well as the entire listing database of the Northwest Multiple Listing Service, fully searchable to your specifications.
The artificial market created by tax credits resulted in the expected fall off the cliff in July, with the number of homes sold in the county as a whole down 22.8% from June sales. The only area that held its own compared to June was Bellingham, where one more home sold in July. Other areas dropped – from 68.8% in Sudden Valley to 52.2% in Lynden and 40% in Birch Bay/Blaine. Ferndale was down just 4.2% in July, although they were caught in August with a drop of 56.5% in sales from their July number.
Typically, July sales are higher than June. It was expected that they would be lower this year, but what really matters is how we are comparing to last year in the same months. One would expect July and August to perform less well relative to last year because of the compressed demand in the early summer, and July lived up (or down) to that expectation. In Whatcom County as a whole, 36.6% fewer units sold. There wasn’t one area in Whatcom County that sold more houses in July 2010 than in July 2009. By August, however, things were looking up a bit in most areas, with Sudden Valley & Birch Bay/Blaine up 15.4% & 21.7% respectively, Lynden matching August 2009, and Bellingham down just 4.7%. Ferndale was hit hard – down 52.4% from sales in August 2009 and Nooksack Valley dropped 81.8%. As a whole, the county sold 13.3% fewer homes in August of 2010 than 2009.
For ongoing real estate numbers, go to www.JohnsonTeamRealEstate.com. We update the site weekly with everything from interest rates to market conditions to information from Fannie Mae, the FED and the FDIC. Also, feel free to call us at (360) 303-2734 or e-mail Info@JohnsonTeamRealEstate.com if you want to know more about a specific portion of the market – we track a lot more than we have space to report.
If your neighborhood would like a presentation or a link to your website of up-to-date information on real estate in the neighborhood, we can provide it – just give us a call. www.johnsonteamrealestate.com also includes a constantly updated list of newly listed properties and a list of properties being offered as short sales & foreclosures (REOs), as well as the entire listing database of the Northwest Multiple Listing Service, fully searchable to your specifications.
The first quarter of real estate sales in Bellingham and Whatcom County ended on a mixed note, with the number of single family homes sold up sharply in most areas from last year, but with average and median prices continuing to drop. January sales were down year over year, but sales picked up in February and were particularly strong in March in most areas.
- 25% more homes sold in Bellingham during March 2010 than in March 2009. In Whatcom County as a whole, that increase was almost 32%, with every area at least matching last year’s sales, and most increasing.
- Both average and median sale prices for single family homes in Bellingham dropped almost 20% from March 2009 to March 2010 (more about that below).
- Average and median sale prices for single family homes in Whatcom County as a whole from March to March were down about 11.5%, with Lynden and Birch Bay bucking the trend and posting increases.
- The strongest March market in Whatcom County in terms of residential units sold relative to a year ago was Lynden, which has been struggling over the past few months. It more than doubled the number of homes sold, the average price was up 9.6% and the median rose by .7%.
- The two areas in Whatcom County with sales challenges in March were Nooksack Valley & Mt Baker. Both posted unit sales equal to last year, but median & average prices were down from 17.5% to 26%.
The chart below shows unit sales, average sale prices and median sale prices over the past 3 years in Whatcom County as a whole.
Now the puzzler: With more demand for homes (25% more sales in Bellingham, 32% more in all of Whatcom County), why did average and median prices drop (around 20% in Bellingham and 11.5% in all Whatcom County)? Did your house drop 20% in value over the past year? Probably not, but the table below will help to demonstrate the dangers inherent in depending on average or median numbers.
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