April real estate sales in Bellingham and Whatcom County were a very mixed bag compared to a year ago. Bellingham sales dropped, some areas held their own and several were up dramatically. Changes in sale prices tended to follow the changes in units sold. Some specifics:
Bellingham sales fell 16% from last years numbers, with both average and median sale prices down about 8%.
Ferndale & Sudden Valley each had exactly the same number of sales as last April, with average prices down 5% in Ferndale and 14% in Sudden Valley. The medians fell about 14% in both areas.
Birch Bay/Blaine posted the best numbers in the county, with unit sales up 118%, average sale prices up almost 29% and the median up nearly 12%.
Lynden remained strong for the 2nd month in a row, with unit sales increasing 64% over a year ago, average sale prices up 6% and the median increasing by 14%.
The chart below shows unit sales, average sale prices and median sale prices over the past 3 years in Whatcom County as a whole.
The price distribution of homes sold in our market has been changing over the past few years, and sometimes it is helpful to jump back and see from whence we have come to get a better perspective of where we are and where we may be going. The following table compares the price ranges of homes that have sold in Bellingham for the first 4 months of 2007 and 2010.
Certainly the total number of homes sold in the first 4 months of 2007 is much higher than the number sold in that period of 2010, but look at the “Unit Change” column in the table above to see where most of those sales were lost. This shift brings down both the average and median price numbers when we look at total sales. Beyond the fact that homes below $300,000 are simply more affordable, this may also be caused by the decline in home sales outside our immediate area. For years, we have seen people move here from higher priced areas (especially Seattle and California) after selling more expensive homes. They have been a major driver in the upper price ranges of our market. When their markets declined the number relocating dropped substantially. As those areas improve, we can expect our market to do the same, particularly in the higher ranges.
The first quarter of real estate sales in Bellingham and Whatcom County ended on a mixed note, with the number of single family homes sold up sharply in most areas from last year, but with average and median prices continuing to drop. January sales were down year over year, but sales picked up in February and were particularly strong in March in most areas.
- 25% more homes sold in Bellingham during March 2010 than in March 2009. In Whatcom County as a whole, that increase was almost 32%, with every area at least matching last year’s sales, and most increasing.
- Both average and median sale prices for single family homes in Bellingham dropped almost 20% from March 2009 to March 2010 (more about that below).
- Average and median sale prices for single family homes in Whatcom County as a whole from March to March were down about 11.5%, with Lynden and Birch Bay bucking the trend and posting increases.
- The strongest March market in Whatcom County in terms of residential units sold relative to a year ago was Lynden, which has been struggling over the past few months. It more than doubled the number of homes sold, the average price was up 9.6% and the median rose by .7%.
- The two areas in Whatcom County with sales challenges in March were Nooksack Valley & Mt Baker. Both posted unit sales equal to last year, but median & average prices were down from 17.5% to 26%.
The chart below shows unit sales, average sale prices and median sale prices over the past 3 years in Whatcom County as a whole.
Now the puzzler: With more demand for homes (25% more sales in Bellingham, 32% more in all of Whatcom County), why did average and median prices drop (around 20% in Bellingham and 11.5% in all Whatcom County)? Did your house drop 20% in value over the past year? Probably not, but the table below will help to demonstrate the dangers inherent in depending on average or median numbers.
After the strong increase in number of units sold in December, January was a letdown, with unit sales down by 26% in Bellingham, although up in Whatcom County as a whole from 2009. February brought the numbers back, resulting in year to date sales nearly even in Bellingham compared to 2009 and up in Whatcom County overall. Bellingham has traditionally been the strongest residential sales area in the county, so the shift to greater strength in the county over the past 2 months has been an aberration – it will be interesting to see how the rest of the year develops. Prices continue to soften, with both averages & medians trending downward in most areas. Some details
January/February residential units sold decreased by 1.3% in Bellingham and increased 17.4% in Whatcom County as a whole over January/February 2009.
Average sale prices for homes in Bellingham during the first two months of 2010 were even with 2009, but the median fell by 8.4%
Average sale prices for homes sold in Whatcom County as a whole dropped by 4.7% from 2009, while the median was down 1.9%.
The strongest markets in Whatcom County in terms of residential units sold relative to a year ago were Ferndale and Birch Bay/Blaine, up by 100% and 28.6 % respectively. Their average prices dropped by 6% to 8.6%, but the median in Ferndale rose 12%.
Sudden Valley is holding its own, and Lynden is continuing to struggle.
The chart below shows unit sales, average sale prices and median sale prices over the past 3 years in Whatcom County as a whole.
For the complete Bellingham and Whatcom County statistics, charts and predictions visit the February Real Estate Report online. For ongoing real estate numbers, go to www.JohnsonTeamRealEstate.com. We update the site weekly with everything from interest rates to market conditions to information from Fannie Mae, the FED and the FDIC. Also, feel free to call us at (360) 303-2734 or e-mailInfo@JohnsonTeamRealEstate.comif you want to know more about a specific portion of the market – we track a lot more than we have space to report.
If your neighborhood would like a presentation or a link to your website of up-to-date information on real estate in the neighborhood, we can provide it – just give us a call.
www.JohnsonTeamRealEstate.com also includes a constantly updated list of newly listed properties and a list of properties being offered as short sales & foreclosures (REOs), as well as the entire listing database of the Northwest Multiple Listing Service, fully searchable to your specifications.
Hope everyone had a wonderful Valentine’s Day weekend. Every week we take a snap shot of the real estate market and track the number of homes on the market that have offers on them and those that do not, this is what we call Pending Ratios.
As of Saturday, Feb. 13th, the pending ratio in Bellingham was 20% Pending is the time frame between when an offer has been mutual accepted between the buyer’s and the seller’s of the home and when the title actually transfers hands. This give the buyer’s time to get the financing, do inspection, review the title reports and more.
To view a complete history of Whatcom County Pending Ratios or for other real estate statistics don’t hesitate to contact The Johnson Team at (360) 303-2734 or by email at Info@JohnsonTeamRealEstate.com
The real estate market in 2009 strengthened as the year progressed, ending the year with dramatically higher sales numbers in some areas and categories when compared with 2008. Falling inventory numbers and strong pending sales were the precursors to more sales and relatively stable prices in the county as a whole during the last quarter. At least a portion of this strength can be attributed to the rising number of distressed properties – short sales and bank owned properties (REOs). While homes under $300,000 still constitute over half the market in Bellingham, their overall share of the market dropped in December as a different price point gained new life. Let’s look at some details:
December residential units sold increased by almost 47 % in Bellingham and 41% in Whatcom County as a whole over December of 2008.
4th quarter sales increased by 57% in Bellingham and 50% in Whatcom County as a whole.
Average sale prices for homes sold in Bellingham during December were equivalent to last year, while the median was up 4.5%. In Whatcom County as a whole, average prices were down 5% and the median dropped 3% during the same period.
4th quarter average prices in Bellingham were up almost 7% compared to 4th quarter of 2008, while the median dropped 2.5% (indicative of the high percentage of sales in that under $300,000 range, but the addition of a few more upper end sales). In Whatcom County, the average was down 1.3% and the median down 4.5%.
The chart below shows unit sales, average sale prices and median sale prices over the past 3 years in Whatcom County as a whole.
As mentioned above, short sales and REOs are making themselves felt, and indications are that they are going to have more impact in 2010. The longer employment numbers stay low, the more people are vulnerable to losing or being forced to sell their homes – and that translates into more short sales and REOs on the market. Look at these numbers:
At the end of 2009, 8.8% of the homes for sale in Bellingham were either a short sale or an REO.
At the same time, 54.6% of the homes under contract in Bellingham were a short sale or an REO – up from 30.6% at the end of October.
For the 8 months during which data was reported, 11.7% of the homes sold in Bellingham were a short sale or an REO.
Short sales and REOs tend to be more aggressively priced than the typical residential listing. As long as they continue to constitute a sizable percentage of the market, there will probably be downward pressure on prices.
The table below shows a major shift in the Bellingham residential market from recent months. While the number of homes sold priced below $300,000 was up in December, it was the $300,000 to $500,000 range that contributed the most to the overall increase in sales. Demand for homes in the lower ranges remains strong – as of December 4th, there was just a 3 month supply of homes available for sale in Bellingham priced below $250,000. The really interesting number, however is that there was just a 4 month supply between $250,000 and $500,000. Over $500,000 there was an 11 month supply, based on the number of total sales over the prior 6 months. A buyer said to me last week as we looked at a home priced at $197,000 that had an accepted contract in 5 days, “Homes in this price range are no lower than they were at the top of the bubble!” That is not necessarily the case, but it certainly is true that continued low inventory could help to counteract the effect of the distressed properties – look at the average price change in the ranges from $300,000 to $750,000 in the table below.
For a prediction of what 2010 will bring to Bellingham and Whatcom County Real Estate and a complete list of local real estate statistic visit the Market News Section of The Johnson Team Real Estate website. For specific real estate questions call (360) 303-2734 we’d be happy to help!
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