Sometimes it is interesting to look at the longer view, so I went back in the dusty archives to 2003.  At that point I wasn’t tracking quite as much as I do now, but the basics are very interesting.  Following is a table showing changes as of the end of each year.  It is interesting, of course, to see the changes in number of homes sold and prices over the past 9 years.

However, the really interesting part may go beyond the basic comparisons. Look at the Active figures from 2004, 2005 & 2006. They increased substantially. Now look at the Sale numbers for 2005, 2006 & 2007. They dropped substantially from 2004 levels. Throughout 2006, inventory, pending and sale numbers were clear indicators that the market was out of balance and cooling off. At the same time, look at the sale prices. They increased substantially from 2004 to 2006, and continued to some degree into 2007. It seems as though the law of supply and demand, even with easy financing, was not operating as might have been expected. Read On….

For more information on Bellingham Real Estate or to search for homes in the Bellingham and Whatcom County area visit www.JohnsonTeamRealEstate.com, your one stop Bellingham real estate and community information resource!

For the most part, the number of homes sold was less than in October, which is normal.  The exceptions were Ferndale and Nooksack Valley, where almost twice as many homes sold in November, and Birch Bay/Blaine, where there was a slight uptick.  If we compare sales numbers to last November, however, more homes sold this year in every area of the county except Lynden and Mt. Baker.  Overall, nearly 11% more homes sold in Whatcom County this year than in November of 2010.

That’s good news.  It means that people want to buy and are able to get loans.

Now let’s look at prices, which seem to be an entirely different story.  Hang in here and I’ll explain the “seem to be” after we look at the numbers.

From October to November, average and median prices dropped by double digits in every area except Lynden (and the median in Sudden Valley).  As a whole, average prices in Whatcom County fell by 16.7%, while the median fell by 5.7%.  November 2011 to November 2010 price changes were not quite as dramatic, but almost.  Bellingham, Ferndale, Nooksack Valley and Mt Baker saw double digit declines in both average and median prices.  Only the Birch Bay/Blaine area saw increases in both average and median, although both Lynden & Mt Baker saw medians go up a bit.  For the county as a whole, the average was down 12% and the median down a bit over 11%.

So has the housing apocalypse hit us?  I don’t think so.  Let me show you why.  The following table shows how many Bellingham homes sold in each of 4 price ranges in November 2010 and then in November 2011.  (If you wonder why I just use Bellingham numbers for this, give me a call or email and I’ll explain my reasoning.) When I look at this table, there are a couple of numbers that jump out.  Look at the total units sold in 2010 in the under $300,000 range…then look at the same category in 2011.  Then follow each of those lines over to the “% of Market” column.  Pretty dramatic, right?

So what does this mean?  Have a lot of homes dropped so much in price that they are now in the under $300,000 range rather than the $300,000 to $500,000 range?  Certainly some have crossed that line, but we have actually seen fewer dollars of change in the lower price range.  Remember, 1% of a large number is a lot more than 1% of a smaller number.  I don’t think that explains the substantial increase in under $300,000 sales, and I will show you why.

For the complete article and analysis of the Bellingham and Whatcom County Real Estate Markets go to the December Real Estate Wrap up on our website.

For more information on Bellingham Real Estate or to search for homes in the Bellingham and Whatcom County area visit www.JohnsonTeamRealEstate.com, your one stop Bellingham real estate and community information resource!

Last month I compared our market to ping pong balls, sometimes up, sometimes down, sometimes both…just depends on the area.  In October

• Bellingham unit sales up from October 2010 (to 75 homes from 65) & almost equal to last month (to 75 homes from 77).
• Ferndale unit sales down from October 2010 (to 14 homes from 27) & down further from last month (to14 homes from 37).
• Birch Bay/Blaine unit sales down a bit from October 2010 (to 13 homes from 15) & down a lot from last month (to13 homes from 28).
• Ferndale unit sales dropped substantially from October 2010 (to 14 homes from 27) & from last month as well (to 14 homes from 37).
• Lynden managed to about break even – up 3 homes from 2010 and down 3 from September.  

But how about the prices, you say.  They were bouncing too, with average sale prices in Bellingham and Birch Bay/Lynden down in the double digits from September while Ferndale, Sudden Valley and Nooksack Valley saw double digit increases.  If we compare to October 2010, Ferndale and Mt Baker home sale averages were up by double digits, while Birch Bay/Blaine and Lynden were down by those amounts and Bellingham and Sudden Valley were close to holding their own.  Want more specifics?

• Bellingham prices October 2011 to 2010:  average -3.7%; median -12.1%
• Whatcom County prices October 2011 to 2010:  average -15.8%; median -18.8%
• Bellingham prices October to September 2011:  average -12%; median -2.4%
• Whatcom County prices October to September 2011:  average +.4%; median -1.9%

The Bellingham market moved even more strongly into the lower price points, with 64% of the sales below $300,000.  Obviously, as prices have dropped, more homes have moved into this category, but it is interesting to note that 4 of the past 6 months have had over 60% of sales at or below $300,000.  This is atypical, even as far back as 2006.  It certainly isn’t because it is now easier for buyers in the lower price ranges to get loans!  During the frenzy, this part of the market was heavily dependent on sub-prime loans.  Now, standards for even FHA loans are higher.

There are several speculative explanations for the shift:

• Prices for homes at all price points have fallen, moving more of the inventory below $300,000.
• As prices have fallen, fewer owners of lower priced homes have been able to sell and take sufficient equity out of their current home to move into the next bracket.
• As prices have fallen in areas traditionally providing our incoming purchasers (California, Seattle), our market has localized so our buyers have local incomes and less equity.
• Buyers (and lenders) are more aware of the hazards of “over-buying”, so they are purchasing more conservative homes.

  The table below shows the change in market distribution from last October

To read the complete article visit The Johnson Team Real Estate’s Real Estate Update Page. www.JohnsonTeamRealEstate.com also includes a constantly updated list of newly listed properties and a list of properties being offered as short sales & foreclosures (REOs), as well as the entire listing database of the Northwest Multiple Listing Service, fully searchable to your specifications.

For more information on Bellingham Real Estate or to search for homes in the Bellingham and Whatcom County area visit www.JohnsonTeamRealEstate.com, your one stop Bellingham real estate and community information resource!

• More homes sold in Bellingham & Whatcom County as a whole than in any other month this year.  This is the first time in 6 years that has happened in Bellingham and only the second for the entire County.  June and July typically see the highest number of sales.
• August sales matched 2010 sales in Bellingham and were up almost 21% for the County as a whole.
• Lynden sales were incredible…up 183% over last year and higher than any year of the past 6.
• Ferndale sales weren’t too bad either, doubling from last year and the highest since 2007.

            And then there was the pricing story:

• Average sale prices in Bellingham dropped 5.8% from 2010 and 9.2% from July of this year.
• Average sale prices in all of Whatcom County dropped 6.1% from 2010 and 2.2% from July of this year.
• Lynden prices held the best, with the average actually increasing 3.8%.
• Sudden Valley was hit the hardest, with both median & average prices down by 35% or more.

So what the heck is going on?  Let’s start by going back to the sales distribution numbers for Bellingham. Note the 61.4% of sales <$300,000.  Last year it was 50.6%, in 2009 it was 42.4%.

For the complete article on the state of the Bellingham and Whatcom County Real Estate Market’s visit Bellingham Real Estate Update Page   to read more!

For more information on Bellingham Real Estate or to search for homes in the Bellingham and Whatcom County area visit www.JohnsonTeamRealEstate.com, your one stop Bellingham real estate and community information resource!

As of Saturday, August 13th, the pending ratio in Bellingham was 20% . Pending is the time frame between when an offer has been mutual accepted between the buyer’s and the seller’s of the home and when the title actually transfers hands. This give the buyer’s time to get the financing, do inspection, review the title reports and more.

Birch Bay had a pending ratio of 17%

The Lynden area in East Whatcom County has a pending ratio of 19%

The Sudden Valley pending ratio was 22%

The Ferndale pending ratio was 13%

To view a complete history of Whatcom County Pending Ratios or for other real estate statistics don’t hesitate to contact The Johnson Team at (360) 303-2734 or by email at Info@JohnsonTeamRealEstate.com

For more information on Bellingham Real Estate or to search for homes in the Bellingham and Whatcom County area visit www.JohnsonTeamRealEstate.com, your one stop Bellingham real estate and community information resource!

After the first half saw sales and prices stabilize, and in some cases actually rise a bit over 2010, July was a mixed story.  The number of homes sold in Bellingham was down 19% and Ferndale was down 30%.  On the other hand, every other area except Nooksack Valley was up substantially, from 47% in Birch Bay/Blaine and 67% in Sudden Valley to 100% in Lynden.  Average and median prices, on the other hand, were down everywhere but Sudden Valley, where the average was up by 38% and the median by 33%.

From June to July, sales were down almost across the board.  Lynden was up by 1 sale and the Mt. Baker area doubled, but all other areas dropped, with Whatcom County as a whole down 15% in unit sales from June.  Prices were down across the board, except for the median in Bellingham, which actually increased 13.5% (more about that later)!   Whatcom County as a whole posted declines in the average prices of 7% and in the median of 2%. 

            So in Bellingham, how can unit sales fall, average prices fall and median prices rise by 13.5%?  The table below explains.  If there are 11 sales, the median is the price of the 6^th sale…half are above it and half are below it.  As you can see in the table, the biggest unit drop was in the lowest price range, so the median moved up.  Relatively speaking, the upper price ranges (particularly from $300,000 to $500,000) lost fewer sales.

So why are July numbers so much softer than June?  It could be concern over the debt crisis outcome that was recently “settled”.  If that is the case, the malaise could hold on for a while since the settlement left many questions unanswered and also pointed up how difficult it is for the federal governing bodies to reach agreement.  That does not bode well for resolution of future issues.  It could simply reflect uncertainty on the part of borrowers who are following the national economic and employment figures.

Leading indicators of inventory levels and pending sales are still good…inventory is lower than in just 1 of the past 5 years.  Pending sales are up 11% over last year, although I do have a concern with the validity of that number.  Consistently, short sales have been running 25% to 30% of pending sales…but in July they were only 3.6% of closed sales.  In short, they constitute a bulge in the pending sales which tends to just sit there, rather than roll through.       

To continue reading the complete article on how the Bellingham Real Estate Market is doing visit The Johnson Team Real Estate Update Page.

For more information on Bellingham Real Estate or to search for homes in the Bellingham and Whatcom County area visit www.JohnsonTeamRealEstate.com, your one stop Bellingham real estate and community information resource!

A comparison of June 2010 to June of this year is even better, with number of sales even closer to last year – in fact, by the time late reports have straggled in, most areas could match or beat last years numbers.

Distressed property (short sale and bank owned) numbers have stayed pretty consistent over the past year. At the end of June, 10.6% of the Bellingham homes for sale were distressed. 38.6% of the pending sales were distressed, and 16.2% of the sales closed in June were distressed. They don’t seem to be having a big impact on overall sale prices.

Inventory levels in Bellingham are down 12% from last year at this time and pending sales are up by 2%.

Frankly, it looks as though the market is pretty stable. Unless there is some major change in the national economic picture, it seems that it might stay that way for a while.

Some things I am noticing:

Appraisals are more of a problem…either with appraisers not coming up with the value or with underwriters not accepting the appraised value without more comparables. In a market like Whatcom County, where we have multiple small, unique markets, there aren’t always a lot of comparable sales, and that can be a real problem.

There are more multiple offers…sometimes on distressed properties, but often on ordinary sales of desirable homes at good value. As was true in the hot market, not all of these offers last very long….as a seller, it makes sense to look hard at the buyer’s ability and reason for buying before choosing the offer to accept. Some buyers jump in too quickly in the heat of moment, then get cold feet and back away when they have time to think.

For the complete article and more charts and statistics on the Bellingham and Whatcom County Real Estate Market visit the Bellingham Real Estate Update on the Johnson Team Real Estate’s website.

For more information on Bellingham Real Estate or to search for homes in the Bellingham and Whatcom County area visit www.JohnsonTeamRealEstate.com, your one stop Bellingham real estate and community information resource!

Question:  I am interested in buying a short sale property, but I have heard it can take a long time for such a sale to close.  How fast can it happen if I pay cash?

 Answer:  You have heard correctly – it can take months for a short sale to close, and in some cases they go to foreclosure first.  The way you pay for a short sale property has nothing to do with the amount of time the sale will take.  In general, the smaller the lender and the more local the lender, the faster the transaction will close.  The larger the lender, the longer the process may be.

 Briefly, let’s define what a short sale is and look at what has to happen for a short sale to close.  A short sale means that the seller is asking the lender to release the lien on the property for less money than the Buyer owes.  Let’s look at a simple process… 

• Buyer makes an offer to Seller.  Seller accepts, subject to approval from the lender AND Seller’s approval of lender’s proposal. 
• Agreement goes to lender, who reviews it and decides what terms they will accept.  In a small, local bank or credit union, one person usually reviews the file, submits it to a committee, they make a decision and send it back.  In a large lender, it goes through layers of review before a decision is made…and there are many files going through that review process. 
• Lender’s decision may be “no” or may be “yes” with conditions.  Seller reviews the lender’s response to see if they will accept the conditions.  It is not unusual for a lender to agree to release the lien but not release the Seller from the obligation to pay what is owed.  Note that a lender doesn’t have to specify they will not release the Seller from responsibility under the note…they simply don’t say they will.  Release of the lien does not change the terms of the note.  This is a primary reason why some Sellers do not give their final approval to the sale, preferring to go through the foreclosure process or declare bankruptcy. 
• If the lender agrees to the terms of the agreement between the Buyer and Seller and the Seller agrees to the lender terms, the transaction can proceed to close.  The speed with which it can close at this point depends on whether the buyer has already gone through the inspection and financing processes. 

 Closing times for standard sales with financing are typically 30 to 45 days.  If the sale is cash, I have seen them close in days.  To learn more about short sales in Bellingham and around Whatcom County visit The Johnson Team Real Estate’s short sale  information and property search page.

For more information on Bellingham Real Estate or to search for homes in the Bellingham and Whatcom County area visit www.JohnsonTeamRealEstate.com, your one stop Bellingham real estate and community information resource!

Tired of sorting through all the articles on the Bellingham and Whatcom County Real Estate Market?  Are you looking for the numbers that tell the story? Below you will find the Bellingham and Whatcom County Real Estate breakdown by numbers in terms of sales prices, number of homes sold and days on the market.

Whatcom County – Median sales price, $247,710, up 2.3 percent; average sales price, $269,391, down 1.5 percent; total homes sold, 322, down 21.1 percent; average days on the market, 165, up 18.7 percent.

Bellingham – Median sales price, $275,000, up 8.7 percent; average sales price, $308,375, up 3.5 percent; total homes sold, 153, up 2.7 percent; average days on the market, 132, up 25.7 percent.

Blaine/Birch Bay – Median sales price, $214,750, down 3.4 percent; average sales price, $251,143, down 12.8 percent; total homes sold, 44, down 29 percent; average days on the market, 211, up 1.9 percent.

Ferndale – Median sales price, $236,000, down 3 percent; average sales price, $252,116, down 5.9 percent; total homes sold, 44, down 33.3 percent; average days on the market, 201, 53.4 percent.

Lynden – Median sales price, $279,000, up 3.4 percent; average sales price, $297,741, up 2.6 percent; total homes sold, 27, down 37.2 percent; average days on the market, 201, up 31.4 percent.

Mount Baker – Median sales price, $59,250, down 63 percent; average sales price, $119,486, down 23.6 percent; total homes sold, 20, down 31 percent; average days on the market, 196, up 19.5 percent.

Nooksack Valley – Median sales price, $242,000, down 1.2 percent; average sales price, $227,900, down 7.7 percent; total homes sold, 11, down 35.3 percent; average days on the market, 178, up 29.9 percent.

Sudden Valley – Median sales price, $176,000, down 23.8 percent; average sales price, $194,778, down 21.4 percent; total homes sold, 18, down 33.3 percent; average days on the market, 173, up 74.7 percent.

To learn more on the Real Estate Market in Bellingham and Whatcom Count visit The Johnson Team’s Real Estate Market Update Page.

For more information on Bellingham Real Estate or to search for homes in the Bellingham and Whatcom County area visit www.JohnsonTeamRealEstate.com, your one stop Bellingham real estate and community information resource!

The number of sales in Bellingham peaked in 2004 at 1425 homes and was around 800 in 2010. Sale prices peaked in 2007, averaging $375,000 with a median of $315,000.  Last year Bellingham homes sold at an average price of $334,301 and a median of $277,500. 

While prices have certainly been affected by the recession, unit sales have been hit much harder.  This trend seems to be continuing, with 1^st quarter Whatcom County sales down 21% from 2010, but median prices up 2.3% and the average dropping just 1.5%.  Bellingham 1^st quarter sales were up 2.7%, with the median up 8.7% and the average up 3.5%.  And remember, these numbers are against the period when first time homebuyers were being given a tax credit of $8000 and repeat homebuyers could claim $6500.

The market has definitely become more “normal” in terms of the distribution of sales.  More sales have moved into the mid-range as opposed to the lower end.  At the same time, the upper end has returned to a more typical percentage of the market than it was several years ago.

Short sales and bank owned properties continue to make up about 20% of the sales in Bellingham, while they formed 14% of homes actively on the market and 35% of those under contract to sell at the end of March.  They do not seem to be having a particularly negative effect on sale prices.

 Inventory levels are lower than they have been since March of 2006.  The number of homes under contract but not yet closed is remaining consistent with numbers seen in March since 2008. 

So what does all this mean?

As we go into what is typically the most active real estate sales time of the year, these numbers bode well for sellers and should be a bit of a red flag to buyers.  Choices are down and some sellers are getting a bit more stubborn.  More buyers seem to be looking for property.  We are seeing low offers negotiated into something approaching list price and great properties with multiple offers.  On the other hand, it is only the best properties that can demand the best prices – what an idea…that is true in any market!  

And that leads me back to the question with which we started, “When will the market be normal again?” My conclusion is that there is no “normal”…there is simply the market.  The basics of buying or selling in it are the same as they always have been.  The best properties sell for the best prices because they are the most attractive.  It was just that for a while we were all afraid we were going to miss the opportunity to buy anything, ever, so we would take whatever we could get and pay whatever it cost.  That market isn’t normal, it isn’t sustainable and hopefully it won’t come back. I think we are reaching equilibrium…and perhaps that is what normal is.

 For ongoing real estate numbers and details on all the Whatcom County market areas, go to www.JohnsonTeamRealEstate.com. We update the site weekly with everything from interest rates to market conditions to information from Fannie Mae, the FED and the FDIC. Also, feel free to call us at (360) 303-2734 or e-mail Info@JohnsonTeamRealEstate.com if you want to know more about a specific portion of the market – we track a lot more than we have space to report. 

            www.JohnsonTeamRealEstate.com also includes a constantly updated list of newly listed properties and a list of properties being offered as short sales & foreclosures (REOs), as well as the entire listing database of the Northwest Multiple Listing Service, fully searchable to your specifications.

For more information on Bellingham Real Estate or to search for homes in the Bellingham and Whatcom County area visit www.JohnsonTeamRealEstate.com, your one stop Bellingham real estate and community information resource!