If you drop a dozen ping-pong balls on a somewhat rough surface, what happens? In my experience, they go every which way, none of which are predictable. It is somewhat like the real estate market right now…some areas are up, some are down, some are up one month and down the next. Trying to make some sense out of it month by month can be really frustrating.
Let’s start this report by looking at who went up and who went down, but then we’re going to talk about trendlines
Bellingham’s September home sales were up strongly from last year in terms of number of homes sold, but the prices dropped – 14% for the average and 12.5% in the median – and that tended to be the pattern throughout most of the county. Only Lynden saw the number of sales drop, but they came off an incredible increase in August. Birch Bay/Blaine was the only area where average and median prices were higher than a year ago – by about 7.8%. Over all, September had the 3rd highest number of home sales in Whatcom County so far in 2011.
As the table below demonstrates, the distribution of sales across price ranges in Bellingham continued to stay heavy on the lower end. In fact, nearly all the additional sales over last year were below $300,000. This, in itself, pulls down both the average and the median prices.
To learn more about what is happening in the Bellingham and Whatcom County Real Estate Markets visit and read the complete article complete with graphs visit the Bellingham Real Estate Update Page.
For ongoing real estate numbers and details on all the Whatcom County market areas, go to www.JohnsonTeamRealEstate.com. We update the site weekly with everything from interest rates to market conditions to information from Fannie Mae, the FED and the FDIC. Also, feel free to call us at (360) 303-2734 or e-mail Info@JohnsonTeamRealEstate.com if you want to know more about a specific portion of the market – we track a lot more than we have space to report.
If your neighborhood would like a presentation or a link to your website of up-to-date information on real estate in the neighborhood, we can provide it – just give us a call.
www.JohnsonTeamRealEstate.com also includes a constantly updated list of newly listed properties and a list of properties being offered as short sales & foreclosures (REOs), as well as the entire listing database of the Northwest Multiple Listing Service, fully searchable to your specifications.
After a rather scary July in the Whatcom County housing market, August brought a number of pleasant surprises:
More homes sold in Bellingham & Whatcom County as a whole than in any other month this year. This is the first time in 6 years that has happened in Bellingham and only the second for the entire County. June and July typically see the highest number of sales.
August sales matched 2010 sales in Bellingham and were up almost 21% for the County as a whole.
Lynden sales were incredible…up 183% over last year and higher than any year of the past 6.
Ferndale sales weren’t too bad either, doubling from last year and the highest since 2007.
And then there was the pricing story:
Average sale prices in Bellingham dropped 5.8% from 2010 and 9.2% from July of this year.
Average sale prices in all of Whatcom County dropped 6.1% from 2010 and 2.2% from July of this year.
Lynden prices held the best, with the average actually increasing 3.8%.
Sudden Valley was hit the hardest, with both median & average prices down by 35% or more.
So what the heck is going on? Let’s start by going back to the sales distribution numbers for Bellingham. Note the 61.4% of sales <$300,000. Last year it was 50.6%, in 2009 it was 42.4%.
August 2010 Price Ranges in $1000’s
Total 2010 August $ Sales
Total Units Sold
Average Sales Price
% of Market
Changes in August Year to Year Distribution of Residential Sales in Bellingham
The end of the first half is always an interesting time to look at the sales numbers. We are midway through 2011…what has it brought us, and what may that indicate for our future? As is usual, some areas are up and some are down, but overall we are doing pretty good. The number of sales in the first half of the year were down across the board from last year, but last year we had the homebuyer tax credits during the first half. Average and median prices, on the other hand, were close to last year or up a bit, except in the Sudden Valley and Mt Baker areas, where they have continued to slide. Numbers from Bellingham and the entire county for the past three years are shown in the table below.
YTD
6/30/2009
% Change
Yr to Yr
YTD
6/30/2010
% Change
Yr to Yr
YTD
6/30/2011
% Change
Yr to Yr
Bellingham
Units Sold
393
-16.2%
385
-2.0%
372
-3.4%
Avg List
$340,815
-9.7%
$332,548
-2.4%
$334,131
0.5%
Avg Sold
$326,740
-11.0%
$320,778
-1.8%
$319,178
-0.5%
Median Sold
$290,627
-5.6%
$269,000
-7.4%
$270,000
0.4%
CDOM
132
-1.5%
99
-25.0%
124
25.3%
% of List
96%
96%
96%
Total Whatcom County
Units Sold
837
-18.2%
969
15.8%
823
-15.1%
Avg List
$303,605
-8.7%
$289,109
-4.8%
$290,744
0.6%
Avg Sold
$290,737
-9.9%
$278,515
-4.2%
$277,537
-0.4%
Median Sold
$265,000
-5.4%
$245,000
-7.5%
$250,000
2.0%
CDOM
150
4.2%
123
-18.05
157
27.6%
% of List
96%
96%
95%
A comparison of June 2010 to June of this year is even better, with number of sales even closer to last year – in fact, by the time late reports have straggled in, most areas could match or beat last years numbers.
Distressed property (short sale and bank owned) numbers have stayed pretty consistent over the past year. At the end of June, 10.6% of the Bellingham homes for sale were distressed. 38.6% of the pending sales were distressed, and 16.2% of the sales closed in June were distressed. They don’t seem to be having a big impact on overall sale prices.
Inventory levels in Bellingham are down 12% from last year at this time and pending sales are up by 2%.
Frankly, it looks as though the market is pretty stable. Unless there is some major change in the national economic picture, it seems that it might stay that way for a while.
Some things I am noticing:
Appraisals are more of a problem…either with appraisers not coming up with the value or with underwriters not accepting the appraised value without more comparables. In a market like Whatcom County, where we have multiple small, unique markets, there aren’t always a lot of comparable sales, and that can be a real problem.
There are more multiple offers…sometimes on distressed properties, but often on ordinary sales of desirable homes at good value. As was true in the hot market, not all of these offers last very long….as a seller, it makes sense to look hard at the buyer’s ability and reason for buying before choosing the offer to accept. Some buyers jump in too quickly in the heat of moment, then get cold feet and back away when they have time to think.
Tired of sorting through all the articles on the Bellingham and Whatcom County Real Estate Market? Are you looking for the numbers that tell the story? Below you will find the Bellingham and Whatcom County Real Estate breakdown by numbers in terms of sales prices, number of homes sold and days on the market.
Whatcom County – Median sales price, $247,710, up 2.3 percent; average sales price, $269,391, down 1.5 percent; total homes sold, 322, down 21.1 percent; average days on the market, 165, up 18.7 percent.
Bellingham – Median sales price, $275,000, up 8.7 percent; average sales price, $308,375, up 3.5 percent; total homes sold, 153, up 2.7 percent; average days on the market, 132, up 25.7 percent.
Blaine/Birch Bay – Median sales price, $214,750, down 3.4 percent; average sales price, $251,143, down 12.8 percent; total homes sold, 44, down 29 percent; average days on the market, 211, up 1.9 percent.
Ferndale – Median sales price, $236,000, down 3 percent; average sales price, $252,116, down 5.9 percent; total homes sold, 44, down 33.3 percent; average days on the market, 201, 53.4 percent.
Lynden – Median sales price, $279,000, up 3.4 percent; average sales price, $297,741, up 2.6 percent; total homes sold, 27, down 37.2 percent; average days on the market, 201, up 31.4 percent.
Mount Baker – Median sales price, $59,250, down 63 percent; average sales price, $119,486, down 23.6 percent; total homes sold, 20, down 31 percent; average days on the market, 196, up 19.5 percent.
Nooksack Valley – Median sales price, $242,000, down 1.2 percent; average sales price, $227,900, down 7.7 percent; total homes sold, 11, down 35.3 percent; average days on the market, 178, up 29.9 percent.
Sudden Valley – Median sales price, $176,000, down 23.8 percent; average sales price, $194,778, down 21.4 percent; total homes sold, 18, down 33.3 percent; average days on the market, 173, up 74.7 percent.
To learn more on the Real Estate Market in Bellingham and Whatcom Count visit The Johnson Team’s Real Estate Market Update Page.
First, let’s set the context. During the 1990’s about 2600 homes sold in Whatcom County every year. At the beginning of that decade the average price was $109,351 and the median was $86,350. By 2000, average prices were up to $167,038 and the median was $144,500. In 2000, 2911 homes were sold, rising to 4454 in 2004 and dropping to 2204 in 2009. The average price countywide peaked in 2007 at $340,448 with a median of $290,725. The charts that follows give a visual look at the change.
The number of sales in Bellingham peaked in 2004 at 1425 homes and was around 800 in 2010. Sale prices peaked in 2007, averaging $375,000 with a median of $315,000. Last year Bellingham homes sold at an average price of $334,301 and a median of $277,500.
While prices have certainly been affected by the recession, unit sales have been hit much harder. This trend seems to be continuing, with 1st quarter Whatcom County sales down 21% from 2010, but median prices up 2.3% and the average dropping just 1.5%. Bellingham 1st quarter sales were up 2.7%, with the median up 8.7% and the average up 3.5%. And remember, these numbers are against the period when first time homebuyers were being given a tax credit of $8000 and repeat homebuyers could claim $6500.
The market has definitely become more “normal” in terms of the distribution of sales. More sales have moved into the mid-range as opposed to the lower end. At the same time, the upper end has returned to a more typical percentage of the market than it was several years ago.
Short sales and bank owned properties continue to make up about 20% of the sales in Bellingham, while they formed 14% of homes actively on the market and 35% of those under contract to sell at the end of March. They do not seem to be having a particularly negative effect on sale prices.
Inventory levels are lower than they have been since March of 2006. The number of homes under contract but not yet closed is remaining consistent with numbers seen in March since 2008.
So what does all this mean?
As we go into what is typically the most active real estate sales time of the year, these numbers bode well for sellers and should be a bit of a red flag to buyers. Choices are down and some sellers are getting a bit more stubborn. More buyers seem to be looking for property. We are seeing low offers negotiated into something approaching list price and great properties with multiple offers. On the other hand, it is only the best properties that can demand the best prices – what an idea…that is true in any market!
And that leads me back to the question with which we started, “When will the market be normal again?” My conclusion is that there is no “normal”…there is simply the market. The basics of buying or selling in it are the same as they always have been. The best properties sell for the best prices because they are the most attractive. It was just that for a while we were all afraid we were going to miss the opportunity to buy anything, ever, so we would take whatever we could get and pay whatever it cost. That market isn’t normal, it isn’t sustainable and hopefully it won’t come back. I think we are reaching equilibrium…and perhaps that is what normal is.
For ongoing real estate numbers and details on all the Whatcom County market areas, go to www.JohnsonTeamRealEstate.com. We update the site weekly with everything from interest rates to market conditions to information from Fannie Mae, the FED and the FDIC. Also, feel free to call us at (360) 303-2734 or e-mail Info@JohnsonTeamRealEstate.com if you want to know more about a specific portion of the market – we track a lot more than we have space to report.
www.JohnsonTeamRealEstate.com also includes a constantly updated list of newly listed properties and a list of properties being offered as short sales & foreclosures (REOs), as well as the entire listing database of the Northwest Multiple Listing Service, fully searchable to your specifications.
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