I recently received an e-mail from an out of state client who is soon to relocate to Bellingham with her family. They have been looking at Bellingham real estate valued in the $500,000 to $600,000 range with the intention of buying this Summer. The client wrote “We’re going to rent in Bellingham rather than purchasing & in 2 to 3 years would like you to help us find our Bellingham dream home”. She asked me if I thought that strategy made sense given the state of the real estate market nationwide & our local real estate market in Bellingham / Whatcom County Washington.

I responded to her that I thought there would be some validity in their holding off on purchasing Bellingham / Whatcom county real estate if their intention was to familiarize themselves with areas / schools / police statistics but responded that I didn’t think there was much concern of our Bellingham real estate / Whatcom County real estate market falling into a real estate abyss. Statistically we have not seen prices dropping & certainly nothing that is being experienced in other areas in the United States.

I thought that it would be an interestiing dialogue to start on our Blog to see how you feel about the health of our Bellingham real estate market as well & what changes you have made because of it.

So to start things off, this is my reasoning for optimism regarding Bellingham real estate. We have tracked real estate sales for years. We have done this by community ie: Bellingham Real Estate, Blaine & Birch Bay Real Estate,Ferndale Real Estate, Lynden Real Estate & Sudden Valley Real Estate for years. If you’d like to know what was happening in Birch Bay Real Estate the week of April 12, 2003 & want to compare that with the same week of 2006, we could tell you. In fact we could narrow it down by price range to give you a definitive idea so that you could make a reasonable decision about your real estate holdings. If you have a home in Bellingham that is valued in the $350,000 to $399,999 range & would like to compare today’s market with the real estate market that existed in Bellingham for the same week in 2002, we could provide you with that informaiton.

Last month Lylene & I were talking & wondering if we tracked sales of Bellingham real estate that had sold 3 years ago & then
re-sold, if there was anything to be gained from that statistic. We reviewed all residential Bellingham real estate sales over the last 3 years & then tracked any subsequent sale of those homes over that same period. Believe me this was no small task given that the number of closed Bellingham real estate sales over that period amounted to 3641 homes. We filtered through those numbers & came up with 123 Bellingham homes that had sold & then re-sold. Of these Bellingham homes, only 11 had resold at prices less than they had sold for previously & 2 for the same sale amount. The remainder of the homes had sold for amounts more than the original sale. To break these sales down, we have come up with the following:
Bellingham real estate sales 2005 & re-sale of the same home in 2006 resulted in an average price increase of 15.4%
Bellingham real estate sales 2005 & re-sale of the same home in 2007 resulted in an avarage price increase of 12.8%
Bellingham real estate sales 2006 & re-sale of the same home in 2007 resulted in an average price increase of 16.0%
Bellingham real estate sales 2005 & re-sale of the same home in 1st Qtr 2008 resulted in an average price increase of 25.0%
Bellingham real estate sales 2006 & re-sale of the same home in 1st Qtr 2008 resulted in an average price increase of 1.5%
Bellingham real estate sales 2007 & re-sale of the same home in 1 st Qtr 2008 resulted in an average price increase of 29.5%

If you have interest in the breakdown of this data & would like to stop by & go over it, please call me @ 360-319-3267 or e-mail.

As our oldest son who is a soon to be PHD at Stanford was quick to point out, these figures do not take into consideration those houses that sold over the last 3 years & have been put back on the market without subsequently re-selling with listing prices potentially below the original sale price. He is correct in that regard, however as we continue to track the re-sales of Bellingham real estate these figures will ultimately be added into the analysis.

Since we did this of course, the world has experienced the “Tsunami of Economic Blasts” not felt since the market crash of 1929. How the collapse of Bear Stearns will ultimately effect the Bellingham real estate market is just guess work at this point. What we will do is continue to track sales & subsequesent re-sales of Bellingham real estate & relay the information to you on this blog.

One of my all time favorite Country Western songs is “The Gambler” by Kenny Rodgers. In it, there is the lyric “You got to know when to hold em, know when to fold em, know when to walk away and know when to run.” As it is with cards, it certainly is true with real estate. Some Buyers & Sellers are using Ouigi Board / Pin the Tail on the Donkey strategies to determine whether they should “Hold Em”, “Fold Em”, “Walk Away” or “Run”.

Sooooooooooooooo to put this all together, I can see nothing on the Bellingham real estate radar screen that would lead me to believe that we are experiencing anything other than a much needed slow down from what we have experienced over the last several years. In terms of “The Gambler”, if I was considering purchasing real estate, I certainly would not put it off because I thought the bottom was going to drop out. Interest rates are good, there is a good selection of inventory & there are Sellers who are motivated to sell. From the standpoint of a Seller, I’d want to keep in mind that today’s Buyer is far different from that of 3 years ago. They are more cautious, discerning & much more concerned about negotiating.

In general, this is how we saw the Bellingham real estate market over 2007 and this would be our real estate prediction for 2008.

As I mentioned earlier, I’d be curious to know what your preception of the real estate market is. Whether you are from Whatcom County & would like to share your thoughts about the Bellingham / Whatcom County real estate market or are from out of the area & would like to share your experiences with your local market, feel free to comment. In terms of “The Gambler” which would you advocate – hold em, fold em, walk away or run?

For more information on Bellingham Real Estate or to search for homes in the Bellingham and Whatcom County area visit www.JohnsonTeamRealEstate.com, your one stop Bellingham real estate and community information resource!