To begin, I want to give you a snapshot of overall market conditions right now.
The last few weeks have been very interesting, what with all the news regarding the home loan market. At this point the FED has stepped in to keep money available, but the skittishness of investors will keep everything on edge for a while. The massive amount of home loans due to reach their first interest rate adjustment in October is just the beginning of hundreds of billions of dollars in loans on which the rates will adjust over the next year. How consumers handle the increased payments and whether financing markets have money available for those who need to restructure debt will have a huge impact on the health of the housing market. So how does this seem to be impacting our local market? Let me show you a snapshot.
We track the number of homes for sale and with sales pending every week, and have done so for several years. Since Bellingham is the largest market (and therefore the most stable), I use it as my canary in the mine. Following are the numbers over the past 3 months.
|
Active 2006 |
Pending 2006 |
Active 2007 |
Pending 2007 |
% change active |
% change pending |
| mid June |
563 |
201 |
602 |
193 |
7% |
-4% |
| mid July |
630 |
203 |
666 |
171 |
6% |
-16% |
| mid August |
645 |
206 |
679 |
150 |
5% |
-27% |
What this shows me is that buyers are wary - value is very important to them. Sellers may be holding off a bit on putting their homes on the market. But, houses are still selling, and since that is our focus, what do we know about those houses?
First, we know that generally speaking a house is most likely to sell if it is priced below $300,000, although $350,000 to $399,000 has an above average likelihood and the $800,000 to $850,000 range isn’t bad at all. $550,000 to $700,000 is very slow.
We know that of those houses which sold in Bellingham over the past 30 days, 31% of them sold within the first 30 days of their listing date and they sold at 99.6% of list price. As the time on market increased, the % of sold price to original list price declined. Even in the slowest sector of the market, 30% sold in the first 30 days at 99.1% of list price.
So what is the bottom line? Fewer buyers are committing to buy and initial pricing is critical. Time is not a seller’s friend. On the other hand, if a home is a good value, a buyer had better make a decision and pay the price, or they will be left to choose from those that are not as good. In a market like this, people buy for 1 of 2 reasons. Either they walk into a house and fall in love, or they walk into a house and think, “This will work, and if I don’t buy it, someone else will.” As a seller, you have very little control over the first reaction, but you have total control over the second. You make the choice.