April real estate sales in Bellingham and Whatcom County were a very mixed bag compared to a year ago. Bellingham sales dropped, some areas held their own and several were up dramatically. Changes in sale prices tended to follow the changes in units sold. Some specifics:
- Bellingham sales fell 16% from last years numbers, with both average and median sale prices down about 8%.
- Ferndale & Sudden Valley each had exactly the same number of sales as last April, with average prices down 5% in Ferndale and 14% in Sudden Valley. The medians fell about 14% in both areas.
- Birch Bay/Blaine posted the best numbers in the county, with unit sales up 118%, average sale prices up almost 29% and the median up nearly 12%.
- Lynden remained strong for the 2nd month in a row, with unit sales increasing 64% over a year ago, average sale prices up 6% and the median increasing by 14%.
The chart below shows unit sales, average sale prices and median sale prices over the past 3 years in Whatcom County as a whole.
The price distribution of homes sold in our market has been changing over the past few years, and sometimes it is helpful to jump back and see from whence we have come to get a better perspective of where we are and where we may be going. The following table compares the price ranges of homes that have sold in Bellingham for the first 4 months of 2007 and 2010.
Certainly the total number of homes sold in the first 4 months of 2007 is much higher than the number sold in that period of 2010, but look at the “Unit Change” column in the table above to see where most of those sales were lost. This shift brings down both the average and median price numbers when we look at total sales. Beyond the fact that homes below $300,000 are simply more affordable, this may also be caused by the decline in home sales outside our immediate area. For years, we have seen people move here from higher priced areas (especially Seattle and California) after selling more expensive homes. They have been a major driver in the upper price ranges of our market. When their markets declined the number relocating dropped substantially. As those areas improve, we can expect our market to do the same, particularly in the higher ranges.
What does the future hold? As noted above, improvements in other markets will provide a boost to ours, and there are always local people who want/need to move or buy their first home. Interest rates are still very good and are expected to stay that way for some time. We are seeing increased interest in purchases from Canadian consumers, driven by their active (and high priced) market, the strong Canadian dollar and their perception that there are incredible deals on property available here. These are a different type of buyer than the out-of-area US buyers. The Canadians are looking primarily for investment property or a second home, and getting a deal is often their primary goal.
Some local buyers have been waiting – expecting prices to drop substantially when the tax credits end. I expect pendings to slow while the dust settles and each side – buyers and sellers – decides what they are willing to accept to play the game. Once expectations on both sides settle into some kind of equilibrium, we should have a steady market. The wild card is going to be the number of distressed properties. Year to date, 19% of the homes sold in Bellingham have been either a short sale or bank owned (REO) property. In the rest of the county, those two property categories comprised 26% of the market. These types of properties typically sell for less than a comparable non-distressed property, and an increase in them, combined with a less active buyer population, could certainly impact prices on other sales.
We are also going into the most active sales period of the year, and inventory is climbing a bit above a year ago, which could be good. Choices in some areas and price points have been pretty slim, and buyers have had trouble finding what they want. Pending numbers in May and June should give us a better idea of what we can expect for the rest of the year.
For ongoing real estate numbers, go to www.JohnsonTeamRealEstate.com/blog. We update the site weekly with everything from interest rates to market conditions to information from Fannie Mae, the FED and the FDIC. Also, feel free to call us at (360) 303-2734 or e-mail Info@JohnsonTeamRealEstate.com if you want to know more about a specific portion of the market – we track a lot more than we have space to report. |
