First let's look
at the numbers, then we can try to make some sense of
them.
| Bellingham |
YTD
6/30/2006 |
YTD
6/30/2007 |
%Chance Year to Year |
YTD 6/30/2008 |
%Chance
Year to Year |
| Units Sold |
585 |
610 |
4.3% |
465 |
-23.8% |
| Avg List |
$371,525 |
$389,283 |
4.8% |
$377,065 |
-3.1% |
| Avg Sold |
$363,049 |
$375,585 |
3.7% |
$366,805 |
-2.3% |
| Median Sold |
$304,000 |
$317,500 |
4.4% |
$305,000 |
-3.9% |
| DOM |
65 |
91 |
40.0% |
98 |
7.7% |
| % of List |
97% |
96% |
|
97% |
0.8% |
| Bellingham |
June 06 |
June 07 |
% Change Year to Year |
June 08 |
% Change Year-to-Year |
| Units Sold |
312 |
185 |
15.4% |
98 |
-34.7% |
| Avg List |
$382,993 |
$404,913 |
5.7% |
$412,111 |
1.8% |
| Avg Sold |
$374,145 |
$392,708 |
5.0% |
$404,082 |
2.9% |
| Median Sold |
$299,400 |
$324,750 |
8.5% |
$337,725 |
4.0% |
| DOM |
56 |
78 |
39.3% |
72 |
-7.7% |
| % of List |
98% |
97% |
|
98% |
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In looking at the tables above, it is obvious that the
activity in the market has slowed considerably. Unit
sales in June were down almost 35% from June sales in
2007, and were down more than total sales over the first
6 months of the year. On the other hand, prices in June
bucked the trend thus far this year and were up a bit,
particularly fueled by some strength in the $500,000
to $750,000 range. The $300,000 to $500,000 range continues
to show the largest decline in number of units sold,
although prices there are also showing small increases.
Since that range is still almost 40% of the Bellingham
market, stable prices there help to maintain the average
and median.
Inventory is still down slightly from last year and
pending sales were off 20% from last year at our mid-month
check. This is the smallest monthly year-to-year decline
in pending sales we have seen since last July, which
was when this slowdown began. Interest rates are still
good, but they have gradually been creeping up and they
are expected to rise further by the end of the year.
We don’t anticipate a collapse or the steep price
declines that are being forecast for other areas of the
country.
The market in Whatcom County outside Bellingham, particularly
Sudden Valley (down 60% in volume) and Ferndale (down
52%), has been harder hit, but average price drops were
3 % to 4%. Lynden’s market, on the other hand,
dropped less in volume (16.7%) and was up 8.5% in average
sold price compared to June of last year. Birch Bay/Blaine,
at a volume drop of 37.5%, tracked pretty close to Bellingham,
but it suffered an 11% drop in average sold prices.
In summary, remember that these are the statistics for
those homes in Whatcom County which have sold. They are
the cream of the crop – best in price, location,
condition and presentation. Buyers countywide last month
paid an average of 97% of the list price for them (98%
in Bellingham). Whether you are thinking of buying or
selling, do your homework and be realistic in your expectations.
If you would like information about any specific areas,
feel free to call us at (360) 527-8766 or email Lylene and
we will get right back to you.
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